Macro Economics distills inflation data, central bank moves, and fiscal responses moving global liquidity.

Liquidity Crosscurrents in Q3

With QT running at $95B per month, the Fed is still draining duration, yet reserve managers in Singapore and Japan are rebuilding USD buffers. The juxtaposition keeps dollar funding from tightening sharply despite Treasury's heavy issuance calendar.

We project that global dollar liquidity remains roughly flat through August, implying risk markets can digest supply so long as growth data cooperates.

Fiscal Impulse Watchlist

Both Brussels and New Delhi are leaning into energy-transition packages that backstop manufacturing slowdowns. The multiplier looks modest at first, but suppliers in batteries and grid automation will see steadier order books.

Investors should monitor tender language for domestic content rules, which may fragment supply chains again by late 2025.